# Trend with a vol target (trend_vol_target)

Desk: Macro. Page: https://hedgefund.md/models/trend_vol_target

**What it asks.** What does a hypothetical trend walk with a vol target look like on these prices, with no peek ahead, after costs?

Walks a hypothetical trend book through the prices sent: sign of the trailing return, sized to a vol target, capped, with each day's weight set from prices through the day before, after turnover costs. Reports vol, mean, drawdown, hit rate, gross, turnover and each market's part. It is a hypothetical walk on the caller's numbers, not a record of trading, a forecast or a signal to follow.

Results are hypothetical: arithmetic on the numbers sent, a made-up template or a stated default. Nobody achieved them, and they aren't a forecast, a recommendation, an offer or a record of real trading. Don't show any output to investors or clients, or use it to market an investment. Terms: https://hedgefund.md/terms

## Inputs

| Input | Type | Range | Required | What it is |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| `markets` | array | 1 to 12 items | yes | The markets, up to 12, with equal numbers of prices. |
| `markets[].name` | string |  | yes | A label for the market, such as Market A. |
| `markets[].prices` | array | 60 to 2000 items | yes | Prices, oldest first, above zero. 60 to 2000 points. |
| `lookback_days` | whole number | 1 to 1500 | no | Trailing window for the direction, in points. Default 126. |
| `vol_days` | whole number | 2 to 1500 | no | Trailing window for rolling vol, in points. Default 63. |
| `target_vol_pct` | number | 0.01 to 200 | yes | Annual vol target for the whole book, in percent. |
| `max_leverage` | number | 0.01 to 100 | yes | Cap on the size of each market's weight: 2 is 200% of NAV. |
| `cost_bps` | number | 0 to 1000 | yes | Cost per unit of turnover, in basis points. |
| `periods_per_year` | number | 1 to 366 | yes | Points per year, such as 252 for daily. |

## Template

Made-up numbers that run as they stand, so you can see the shape of a result. They aren't market levels, typical values or estimates, and the names in them don't exist. Replace every number before you read anything into a run.

```json
{
  "markets": [
    {
      "name": "Market A",
      "prices": [
        100, 100.75, 101.5, 100.58, 100.6, 100.67, 100.47, 101.2, 101.41, 101.65,
        101.94, 102.84, 105.17, 105.55, 105.61, 104.46, 103.6, 101.81, 101.97, 102.47,
        101.82, 102.83, 102.63, 103.33, 103.71, 103.92, 105.19, 105.67, 106.18, 104.98,
        104.41, 104.57, 104.43, 103.44, 103.42, 104.85, 105.56, 103.6, 102.56, 103.77,
        103.04, 102.06, 101.88, 102.44, 103.09, 104.63, 105.06, 104.62, 107.61, 107.76,
        107.08, 107.32, 107.97, 108.93, 109.2, 109.84, 111.49, 112.69, 113.29, 113.88,
        113.95, 111.6, 110.9, 111.46, 113.46, 113.83, 111.87, 112.15, 113.03, 113.47,
        114.16, 114.68, 114.23, 114.84, 116.6, 116.44, 116.68, 117.1, 117.12, 116.21,
        115.73, 115.65, 115.04, 115.33, 114.9, 116.37, 115.62, 116.93, 117.77, 118.28,
        119.32, 116.7, 114.84, 113.48, 112.14, 114.2, 113.23, 111.96, 112.44, 113.18,
        113.66, 115.72, 116.51, 117.58, 118.9, 118.11, 119.46, 117.12, 116.18, 117.11,
        115.91, 115.88, 115.89, 116.5, 118.34, 119.64, 119.61, 119.05, 118.45, 119.04,
        118.26, 118.66, 119.54, 122.23, 123.01, 124.49, 124.53, 123.77, 122.91, 123.75,
        125.02, 126.37, 127.02, 125.88, 126.2, 127.8, 126.41, 126.18, 127.78, 126.7,
        127.73, 126.6, 127.41, 127.72, 126.63, 126.71, 128.44, 128.39, 128.32, 130.73,
        133.16, 132.23, 132.48, 133.26, 133.23, 134.34, 132.26, 129.77, 129.75, 130.69,
        131.68, 132.14, 132.26, 133.93, 133.05, 132.99, 131.49, 131.54, 134.37, 135.63,
        136.33, 136.68, 136.64, 135.85, 136.7, 136.69, 138.63, 138.05, 137.48, 138.22,
        137.24, 137.78, 139.63, 139.58, 142.4, 140.94, 141.49, 142.13, 144.49, 146.43,
        147.69, 146.5, 147.79, 148.51, 149.6, 148.48, 150.1, 152.78, 155.12, 155.54,
        155.2, 156.4, 157.75, 159.6, 159, 158.07, 157.95, 157.71, 158.75, 157.66,
        157.33, 157.3, 155.53, 155.46, 155.65, 155.89, 156.05, 156.13, 155.14, 156.23,
        155.64, 156.58, 156.11, 154.65, 155.08, 155.92, 158.2, 159.01, 160.73, 161.66,
        161.4, 162.48, 165.56, 166.34, 164.35, 163.7, 163.78, 166.87, 164.54, 165.84,
        166.62, 165.54, 163.49, 164.4, 165.86, 166.41, 167.84, 167.1, 167.74, 165.26,
        166.27, 167.87, 168.75, 167.9, 168.26, 169.75, 169.1, 169.93, 169.32, 172.34,
        173.22, 168.91, 168.88, 167.08, 167.11, 168.36, 166.73, 164.48, 163.33, 164.81,
        165.79, 164.41, 166.28, 168.77, 171.47, 172.77, 171.37, 170.91, 170.77, 169.17,
        168.4, 166.12, 166.25, 166.97, 166.36, 166, 165.02, 166.34, 167.38, 167.71,
        166.95, 163.85, 163.25, 163.65, 163.6, 163.23, 165.87, 166.64, 165.79, 165.28,
        164.55, 163.49, 164.73, 162.78, 165.43, 166.58, 165.41, 164.98, 164.82, 163.34,
        163.55, 159.99, 161.73, 158.72, 158.43, 158.16, 159.71, 161.02, 159.42, 160.59,
        162.4, 162.45, 163.53, 161.9, 162.12, 161.97, 163.62, 162.45, 163.8, 163.72,
        161.77, 165.06, 166.79, 166.55, 166.55, 167.46, 169.15, 168.84, 166.77, 168.58,
        168.62, 168.57, 168.23, 166.81, 164.73, 165.35, 165.71, 166.57, 167.02, 168.76,
        169.22, 167.52, 169.37, 166.66, 168.91, 168.16, 166.34, 166.11, 165.54, 168.3,
        169.33, 168.88, 170.96, 168.55, 169.89, 169.83, 172.41, 175.11, 175.37, 174.33,
        175.83, 174.73, 174.15, 176.33, 175.08, 176.28, 177.32, 174.66, 172.8, 172.67,
        174.02, 173.45, 177.46, 173.14, 173.99, 174.6, 175.76, 172.61, 172.29, 172.02,
        172.14, 172.92, 174.54, 171.18, 171.33, 171.35, 172.1, 172.88, 172.83, 172.22,
        172.63, 173.31, 170.85, 171.62, 171.26, 171.24, 169.54, 172.43, 171.71, 171.86,
        171.06, 170.41, 171.36, 170.31, 171.34, 169.3, 168.77, 167.73, 166.99, 167.13,
        163.4, 162.07, 163.52, 162.01, 160.94, 159.92, 160.27, 161.69, 160.9, 162.03,
        160.23, 160.9, 160.85, 160.19, 160.75, 160.56, 160.79, 161.97, 162.24, 161.03,
        159.61, 159.45, 158.89, 158.92, 158.49, 160.8, 161.64, 161.31, 160.24, 159.26,
        160.57, 161.07, 161.56, 159.84, 158.94, 158.68, 159.84, 160.85, 159.45, 158.89,
        158.12, 158.09, 157.35, 156.85, 157.61, 157.62, 156.28, 159.55, 158.47, 159.69,
        159.42, 157.19, 155.94, 156.03, 154.61, 152.5, 151.69, 153.23, 152.41, 154.44,
        155.44, 155.66, 155.07, 154.29, 155.04, 154.8, 157.76, 157.87, 158.59, 157.17,
        156.89, 154.73, 154.35, 153.59, 154.19, 153.79, 153.68, 154.21, 153.87, 153.55,
        155.22, 153.65, 150.93, 150.6
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "Market B",
      "prices": [
        100, 100.03, 100.41, 99.77, 99.15, 98.75, 98.47, 98.62, 98.52, 98.62,
        99.11, 99.9, 100.37, 99.69, 99.74, 99.31, 99.65, 99.7, 99.54, 100,
        99.36, 99.68, 99.93, 100.23, 101.25, 101.16, 101.61, 101.18, 100.76, 100.26,
        100.73, 100.85, 100.66, 100.73, 101.06, 100.77, 100.2, 99.4, 99.17, 99.51,
        99.32, 99.23, 99.22, 99.63, 100.07, 100.44, 100.08, 99.75, 99.94, 100.32,
        99.79, 99.35, 98.88, 99.34, 99.15, 99.59, 99.81, 100.45, 100.35, 99.23,
        99.33, 98.88, 98.11, 98.6, 98.31, 98.9, 99.13, 98.16, 98.24, 98.2,
        98.62, 99.04, 98.43, 97.9, 98.6, 98.46, 98.5, 99.17, 98.86, 98.4,
        98.87, 99.08, 98.95, 98.54, 97.91, 97.55, 97.2, 96.91, 98.2, 99.17,
        99.5, 99.49, 99.42, 98.98, 98.39, 98.56, 98.5, 98.4, 97.92, 97.69,
        98.5, 98.78, 99.4, 99.96, 100.79, 101.17, 100.43, 99.9, 99.99, 100.12,
        99.54, 99.53, 98.58, 99.61, 100.63, 100.61, 101.44, 101.1, 101.01, 101.31,
        102.24, 102.28, 102.51, 103.3, 104.17, 105.27, 105.22, 105.36, 105.04, 104.7,
        105.18, 105.41, 105.15, 105.38, 105.36, 105.56, 105.49, 106.02, 106.01, 105.16,
        105.01, 104.31, 104.39, 104.98, 104.53, 104.4, 104.8, 105.36, 105.86, 106.8,
        107.04, 106.45, 106.61, 107.35, 107.03, 107.17, 106.36, 105.95, 107.18, 107.2,
        108.12, 108.28, 107.73, 107.68, 107.37, 106.93, 106.6, 106.79, 106.55, 106.41,
        106.72, 107.17, 107.11, 106.81, 107.88, 107.27, 108.17, 108.35, 108.55, 108.49,
        108.41, 108.48, 108.79, 108.63, 109.76, 109.41, 109.79, 109.24, 109.24, 109.35,
        110.33, 110.88, 110.65, 109.69, 110.19, 110.36, 110.72, 111.71, 112.6, 112.34,
        111.99, 112.97, 112.94, 112.65, 112.21, 112.09, 112.07, 111.77, 112.44, 111.02,
        110.14, 110.38, 109.28, 109.58, 108.76, 109.18, 110.52, 109.82, 108.59, 108.67,
        108.48, 109.06, 109.48, 109.59, 109.95, 109.5, 108.63, 109.17, 109.27, 108.5,
        109.09, 108.7, 109.22, 109.23, 108.58, 108.11, 108.78, 110.19, 109.06, 109.61,
        109.21, 108.82, 107.97, 108.82, 109.08, 108.57, 108.61, 108.55, 107.57, 107.23,
        107.07, 107.15, 107.42, 107.51, 107.64, 107.56, 107.37, 107.6, 107.42, 106.82,
        107.08, 106.21, 105.22, 104.66, 104.66, 104.79, 104.57, 103.65, 104.38, 104.56,
        104.37, 104.41, 104.47, 104.7, 105.23, 105.16, 105.06, 106.02, 107.16, 107.4,
        107.21, 106.19, 105.61, 105.51, 105.48, 104.77, 104.58, 104.46, 104.59, 104.64,
        103.67, 102.58, 102.06, 102.53, 102.2, 101.88, 102.63, 103.25, 103.08, 103.25,
        104.02, 103.91, 104.29, 103.92, 104.46, 105.34, 105.14, 103.88, 104.3, 104.69,
        105.07, 104.39, 104.15, 104.15, 104.16, 103.84, 103.49, 103.12, 103.68, 104.32,
        104.68, 105.12, 105.47, 105.41, 105.3, 105.73, 105.8, 104.75, 104.76, 105.07,
        104.97, 105.74, 106.67, 106.57, 106.52, 106.91, 107.34, 107.74, 106.8, 107.7,
        107.95, 107.47, 108.33, 108.11, 108.16, 108.17, 108.23, 108.65, 108.56, 109.1,
        109.25, 108.86, 110.04, 109.46, 110.25, 110.06, 109.35, 107.93, 107.88, 108.27,
        108.42, 108.05, 108.63, 107.98, 107.77, 108.17, 108.73, 109.7, 109.71, 109.36,
        109.47, 109.23, 109.71, 109.71, 110.16, 110.29, 109.88, 110.14, 110.5, 110.23,
        110.65, 110.6, 112.15, 111.66, 111.69, 112.04, 113.01, 112.62, 113.51, 113.75,
        113.46, 113.46, 113.63, 112.46, 112.54, 112.01, 112.16, 111.66, 112.73, 112.24,
        112.56, 112.52, 112.61, 112.21, 112.17, 112.44, 111.76, 112.5, 111.86, 112,
        112.88, 113.36, 114.43, 115.09, 114.95, 114.27, 114.27, 113.7, 114.07, 113.84,
        113.22, 112.64, 112.05, 111.66, 111.42, 111.27, 111.28, 111.99, 112.08, 112.61,
        113.06, 112.51, 111.6, 110.85, 110.35, 110.57, 111.69, 112.27, 112.38, 112.62,
        113.21, 112.32, 112.18, 111.08, 111.43, 111.93, 112.88, 113.45, 113.54, 113.47,
        114.05, 114.67, 115.48, 115.1, 114.54, 113.64, 114.3, 113.77, 112.67, 112.37,
        112.84, 112.73, 112.27, 112.53, 113.09, 113.2, 113.47, 114.37, 113.74, 113.9,
        113.61, 112.08, 113.18, 112.93, 113.1, 113.53, 113.83, 113.84, 113.52, 113.76,
        113.75, 114.18, 114.43, 114.14, 113.97, 114.56, 115.08, 114.72, 114.32, 114.05,
        114, 113.37, 113.06, 113.12, 113.03, 112.91, 112.87, 113.62, 112.78, 113.01,
        113.02, 112.57, 112.58, 112.27
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "Market C",
      "prices": [
        80, 79.43, 80.14, 80.44, 78.01, 77.12, 78.2, 78.74, 79.15, 81.07,
        82.6, 84.21, 84.53, 82.38, 83.75, 82.32, 81.45, 78.5, 78.03, 81.04,
        79.98, 80.23, 80.21, 80.4, 82.49, 83.22, 83.15, 83.06, 81.59, 79.86,
        79.48, 79.37, 78.74, 79.19, 80.83, 81.47, 81.77, 80.17, 80.36, 81.36,
        81.28, 82.72, 82.86, 82.74, 84, 84.54, 86.31, 86.97, 90.45, 92.64,
        91.28, 90.29, 90.28, 91.73, 90.71, 91.48, 92.76, 93.23, 91.63, 89.64,
        89.48, 89.69, 89.27, 89.51, 90.32, 93.17, 92.46, 91.73, 92.22, 91.03,
        91.58, 92.16, 91.39, 92.18, 92.67, 93.09, 93.52, 93.08, 92.84, 92.13,
        92.9, 92.72, 92.82, 91.14, 91.28, 92.43, 90.49, 91.85, 94.42, 95.49,
        96.43, 95.25, 94.83, 94.3, 92.56, 93.05, 93.71, 91.74, 90.83, 91.75,
        90.59, 89.12, 88.96, 89.31, 92.2, 91.29, 90.91, 91.1, 90.14, 90.14,
        89.58, 88.86, 89.04, 90.97, 93.04, 93.15, 92.81, 93.28, 92.66, 91.3,
        91.58, 92.55, 93.25, 93.8, 95.8, 96.73, 96.27, 96.66, 94.86, 93.53,
        95.12, 96.29, 96.98, 95.91, 98.02, 97.98, 96.79, 97.97, 98.65, 98.55,
        99.05, 97.45, 98.21, 98.2, 97.17, 98.29, 95.87, 96.72, 97.31, 100.23,
        101.09, 101.43, 102.25, 104.66, 103.59, 104.63, 103.59, 102.6, 103.58, 104.51,
        105.26, 102.86, 101.97, 102.59, 103.19, 102.21, 99.11, 99.16, 98.75, 100.02,
        99.07, 98.75, 99.63, 98, 100.16, 101.43, 103.07, 102.45, 102.85, 103.06,
        99.76, 101.1, 102.32, 103.79, 106.87, 105.62, 106.44, 105.12, 105.96, 108.62,
        110.62, 111.08, 111.35, 111.22, 111.88, 110.23, 112.79, 112.73, 111, 111.57,
        111.37, 113.23, 115.61, 118.73, 118.58, 117.51, 117.02, 112.83, 113.36, 111.29,
        109.51, 110.19, 107.94, 108.25, 107.37, 109.28, 110.33, 108.41, 109.72, 111.55,
        111.06, 112.33, 112.72, 110.54, 111.71, 111.35, 109.74, 112.96, 113.16, 113.69,
        115.12, 114.83, 116.79, 117.48, 116.45, 118.39, 116.68, 119.67, 119.07, 120.19,
        119.04, 118.93, 120.48, 122.43, 122.87, 122.64, 123.31, 124.51, 122.88, 120.09,
        121.84, 122.19, 121.99, 122.54, 125.99, 126.98, 126.91, 128.82, 131.76, 132.03,
        132.03, 129.17, 127.74, 128.13, 130.37, 129.29, 126.89, 125.16, 125.9, 126.21,
        126.45, 122.3, 122.85, 122.67, 125.89, 130.03, 129.19, 129.83, 133.04, 133.54,
        132.19, 130.29, 130.49, 132.02, 132.09, 132.22, 128.86, 129.9, 132.02, 132.65,
        131.08, 128.38, 126.66, 130.1, 129.25, 130.21, 132.53, 133.7, 134.28, 132.91,
        134.3, 131.73, 132.53, 130.55, 132.37, 134.73, 133.82, 131.74, 132.79, 134.83,
        134.69, 131.12, 131.23, 129.4, 131.45, 130.6, 129.01, 129.73, 127.83, 129.66,
        130.34, 131.78, 134.2, 133.24, 131.7, 129.6, 130.15, 129.1, 130.63, 133.17,
        133.78, 134.72, 137.18, 135.75, 136.62, 138.03, 140.02, 141.77, 140.21, 141.73,
        142.95, 140.13, 140.87, 140.88, 140.01, 140.4, 140.45, 141.93, 141.65, 143.87,
        143.92, 141.26, 142.54, 139.32, 140.52, 140.28, 138.55, 136.4, 137.02, 138.48,
        137.01, 136.03, 133.98, 130.53, 129.15, 131.38, 131.63, 134.14, 133.76, 133.07,
        132.3, 130.91, 132.57, 134.3, 134.81, 137.35, 139.06, 138.74, 136.75, 139.45,
        139.79, 139.62, 143.87, 140.35, 138.86, 137.63, 135.86, 135.05, 134.38, 133.93,
        134.25, 135.32, 134.64, 131.28, 131.41, 131.53, 132.72, 132.35, 132.56, 132.83,
        133.1, 134.57, 131.72, 129.65, 130.59, 130.22, 128.25, 128.17, 128.51, 127.49,
        129.14, 127.23, 125.89, 127.41, 126.14, 124.5, 124.3, 123.75, 122.74, 123.45,
        122.05, 122.22, 120.58, 119.86, 121.9, 120.83, 120.99, 121.88, 122.9, 123.49,
        123.69, 123.3, 122.26, 121.49, 120.66, 119.5, 118.77, 118.88, 118.41, 118.91,
        120.01, 116.57, 116.16, 115.1, 112.26, 114.07, 115.62, 116.31, 116.03, 115.38,
        116.39, 117.82, 121.71, 121.26, 119.95, 118.08, 119.46, 120.85, 118.15, 117.22,
        120.59, 120.71, 120.45, 120.1, 120.34, 119.21, 122.94, 126.18, 124.54, 123.8,
        123.31, 120.22, 121.59, 123.56, 123.81, 124.45, 126.44, 126.72, 123.94, 125.3,
        123.79, 123.75, 122.64, 123.26, 123.86, 125.78, 130.23, 130.65, 130.76, 127.99,
        125.72, 122.8, 121.34, 119.16, 119.19, 120.02, 120.11, 119.35, 119.14, 118.67,
        119.82, 117.23, 118.08, 116.33
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "Market D",
      "prices": [
        120, 119.94, 121.62, 121.9, 120.79, 120.17, 120.6, 120.74, 120.65, 121.5,
        121.61, 122.17, 122.32, 122.86, 123.42, 122.52, 122.26, 120.88, 119.32, 120.03,
        119.42, 120.1, 119.73, 120.23, 120.22, 120.48, 121.19, 121.54, 120.87, 119.84,
        120.66, 121.48, 121.88, 121.25, 121.81, 120.63, 119.9, 119.93, 118.69, 120.06,
        118.86, 118.26, 118.02, 118.47, 118.92, 119.92, 119.51, 119.57, 121.77, 121.77,
        121.34, 121.3, 121.25, 121.2, 121.42, 121.71, 122.5, 121.95, 122.18, 121.5,
        121.69, 121.46, 121.35, 121.12, 121.4, 121.72, 121.72, 121.46, 121.33, 121.61,
        121.37, 122.08, 121.78, 121.82, 121.86, 122.16, 122.49, 122.48, 122.94, 122.1,
        123.25, 123.1, 122.47, 122, 121.67, 123.44, 122.33, 123.06, 124.52, 124.53,
        124.88, 124.57, 124.59, 124.88, 124.83, 125.29, 124.73, 124.99, 123.76, 123.67,
        123.9, 123.88, 125.47, 125.57, 127.26, 127.3, 126.84, 126.87, 127.11, 126.13,
        125.27, 125.54, 125.45, 126.41, 127.9, 128.16, 129.14, 129.67, 129.63, 129.61,
        130.17, 130.89, 131.03, 132.29, 133.99, 134.98, 135.05, 134.5, 133.91, 134.38,
        134.92, 135.15, 135.99, 136.61, 135.72, 136.17, 135.39, 135.65, 135.78, 135.81,
        136.15, 135.45, 136.14, 136.11, 135.26, 135.17, 134.15, 134.6, 134.99, 137.18,
        137.61, 138, 137.6, 137.61, 136.46, 135.89, 135.3, 134.28, 135.11, 136.36,
        135.75, 135.04, 135.35, 134.37, 135.28, 135.32, 134.2, 134.77, 135.73, 136.61,
        136.7, 136.82, 137.54, 137.43, 138.35, 138.69, 137.68, 137.27, 136.85, 137.63,
        137.63, 138.04, 138.25, 138.35, 140.41, 140.16, 139.52, 139.3, 140.01, 140.53,
        141.79, 141.72, 143.37, 142.39, 143.13, 142.68, 141.42, 142.33, 143.01, 143.27,
        143.01, 143.76, 145.02, 144.65, 143.5, 143.43, 142.92, 142.11, 142.15, 141.57,
        140.35, 140.4, 138.89, 139.37, 139.39, 139.18, 140.64, 140.05, 140.04, 140.37,
        140.63, 141.55, 142.06, 142.25, 143.26, 142.76, 141.95, 142.52, 142.96, 142.96,
        143.58, 143.68, 144.25, 144.21, 143.51, 142.47, 142.17, 143.37, 143.06, 143.3,
        142.34, 141.01, 141.58, 142.69, 143.39, 142.74, 142.35, 141.81, 140.51, 138.99,
        140.45, 142.26, 143.64, 144.06, 143.86, 144.24, 144.74, 144.89, 144.81, 145.08,
        146.15, 144.54, 143.03, 142.46, 142.49, 141.33, 140.57, 139.27, 140.04, 139.72,
        140.16, 138.83, 138.27, 139.13, 139.57, 138.99, 138.36, 138.84, 139.77, 139.5,
        139.44, 139.51, 138.85, 139.28, 139.3, 138.35, 137.96, 138.41, 139.15, 138.14,
        136.97, 135.52, 135.01, 136.17, 134.95, 135.55, 136.67, 135.63, 135.75, 134.73,
        134.55, 134.49, 134.46, 133.19, 133.63, 134.78, 134.31, 133.91, 133.38, 132.57,
        132.64, 131.38, 130.3, 131.14, 131.16, 131.14, 132.53, 132.81, 131.87, 133.84,
        134.77, 134.38, 135.88, 135.65, 135.65, 134.5, 135.94, 135.08, 134.68, 135.2,
        134.55, 136.3, 137.95, 137.74, 137.51, 138.31, 139.65, 139.49, 138.85, 139.32,
        138.65, 138.61, 139.92, 138.39, 137.41, 137.16, 138.56, 138.28, 138.24, 139.41,
        139.46, 137.95, 138.79, 138.01, 139.34, 139.62, 140.16, 139.78, 140.97, 142.33,
        142.1, 142.02, 142.81, 141.66, 141.47, 142.49, 142.32, 143.36, 143.51, 143.48,
        143.43, 142.66, 143.3, 144.09, 144.02, 144.24, 145.09, 144.4, 143.91, 144.8,
        144.77, 146.35, 147.91, 145.31, 144.22, 144.56, 144.66, 143.72, 144.94, 143.65,
        144.26, 144.45, 145.39, 143.08, 142.62, 143.52, 144.09, 144.37, 145.19, 144.69,
        143.67, 143.64, 143.13, 142.59, 143.37, 143.41, 142.9, 145.92, 145.96, 145.96,
        145.84, 146.75, 147.39, 147.36, 147.94, 148.73, 147.96, 147.09, 145.43, 145,
        142.71, 143.28, 143.51, 143.16, 144.48, 145.27, 143.44, 143.84, 143.4, 144.24,
        144.15, 143.83, 142.99, 142.61, 143.04, 142.73, 143.3, 144.3, 143.74, 144.27,
        143.71, 143.22, 142.98, 142.02, 141.34, 142.83, 143.95, 143.94, 144.8, 145.17,
        144.81, 145.58, 146.09, 145.89, 144.7, 143.82, 144.41, 144.59, 143.06, 143.86,
        144.49, 143.85, 143.84, 143.38, 143.73, 142.52, 142.27, 143.34, 141.99, 142.68,
        141.41, 139.64, 140.18, 140.51, 141.46, 141.41, 141.85, 142.15, 141.88, 142.3,
        142.32, 143.41, 144.73, 143.56, 143.8, 144.73, 146.49, 146.4, 146.36, 145.85,
        146.01, 145.16, 144.77, 145.26, 146.25, 146.75, 145.63, 146.69, 147.28, 147.41,
        148.24, 146.03, 145.14, 144.95
      ]
    }
  ],
  "lookback_days": 126,
  "vol_days": 63,
  "target_vol_pct": 10,
  "max_leverage": 2,
  "cost_bps": 5,
  "periods_per_year": 252
}
```

## What the template gives

On these numbers, a hypothetical walk through the prices sent shows a mean of 7.13% a year on 12.42% annual vol against a 10% target, with a largest drawdown of 17.86%. It is not a record of trading.

- Hypothetical annual mean: 7.1326% a year
- Hypothetical annual vol: 12.42% (watch)
- Hypothetical mean to vol: 0.5745
- Hypothetical largest drawdown: 17.86%
- Hypothetical hit rate: 50.66%
- Hypothetical average gross: 1.7506x NAV
- Hypothetical turnover: 21.97x NAV a year
- Days walked: 377

Where it flips, with the other inputs held:

- `cost_bps` at 37.4683: At this cost the hypothetical mean return is zero. Above it, the mean is negative. Weights don't depend on cost.
- `target_vol_pct` at 28.306954: Below this target, no market reaches the leverage cap on any day. From here up, the cap starts to cut weights, on any day the walk gets to.

## Formula

r_it = p_it / p_i,t-1 - 1. direction_it = sign(p_i,t-1 - p_i,t-1-L). vol_it = stdev(r_i,t-V ... r_i,t-1) * sqrt(periods_per_year). w_it = direction_it * (target / sqrt(N)) / vol_it, size capped at max_leverage. R_t = sum w_it r_it - cost * sum |w_it - w_i,t-1|. Equity_t = Equity_t-1 * (1 + R_t).

## Assumptions

- No peek ahead: day t's weight uses prices through day t-1 only, and it earns day t's return. The direction and rolling vol stop one day before the return they are applied to.
- Returns are simple, close to close. Rolling vol is the sample stdev (n - 1) of the last vol_days returns.
- The walk starts at the first day both windows are full, from flat, so the first day pays to build the book.
- target_vol / sqrt(N) would hit the target only if the markets were uncorrelated and the vol estimates were right. Realized vol is reported beside the target.
- N is the number of markets sent, whether or not each has a position that day.
- Annual vol is stdev of daily returns times sqrt(periods_per_year). Annual mean is the mean daily return times periods_per_year. Mean to vol doesn't subtract any cash rate.
- A market whose rolling vol is zero, or whose trailing return is exactly zero, gets no position that day. Stale prices aren't read as low risk.
- Turnover is the sum of changes in target weights. Hit rate counts days with a non-zero return.
- If a day's loss takes equity to zero or below, the walk stops there.
- The weights stay inside the walk. The result gives averages and totals, and no market's weight or direction at the end of the series, because on current prices that would read as a position to take.

## Not modeled

- Financing on leverage, margin, and interest on idle cash.
- Contract rolls, dividends and carry: returns are price changes only.
- Slippage beyond cost_bps, gaps, limit moves, and the time it takes to trade.
- Drift in weights between days: turnover counts target changes only.
- Correlation between markets when sizing. It shows up only in realized vol.
- The choice of markets and windows: this walk knows nothing of how many were tried.
- Fees and taxes.

## Call it

Every result has the same fields: summary, readings, tables, charts, flags, flips, formula, assumptions, not_modeled, hypothetical and inputs_hash. Read flags, flips and not_modeled with the summary, and pass them along together.

### HTTP

No key. The tools keep nothing you send. Send positions by POST, because a URL can land in a server log.

```bash
curl -s https://hedgefund.md/api/v1/trend_vol_target \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' \
  -d '{"markets":[{"name":"Market A","prices":[100,100.75,101.5,100.58,100.6,100.67,100.47,101.2,101.41,101.65,101.94,102.84,105.17,105.55,105.61,104.46,103.6,101.81,101.97,102.47,101.82,102.83,102.63,103.33,103.71,103.92,105.19,105.67,106.18,104.98,104.41,104.57,104.43,103.44,103.42,104.85,105.56,103.6,102.56,103.77,103.04,102.06,101.88,102.44,103.09,104.63,105.06,104.62,107.61,107.76,107.08,107.32,107.97,108.93,109.2,109.84,111.49,112.69,113.29,113.88,113.95,111.6,110.9,111.46,113.46,113.83,111.87,112.15,113.03,113.47,114.16,114.68,114.23,114.84,116.6,116.44,116.68,117.1,117.12,116.21,115.73,115.65,115.04,115.33,114.9,116.37,115.62,116.93,117.77,118.28,119.32,116.7,114.84,113.48,112.14,114.2,113.23,111.96,112.44,113.18,113.66,115.72,116.51,117.58,118.9,118.11,119.46,117.12,116.18,117.11,115.91,115.88,115.89,116.5,118.34,119.64,119.61,119.05,118.45,119.04,118.26,118.66,119.54,122.23,123.01,124.49,124.53,123.77,122.91,123.75,125.02,126.37,127.02,125.88,126.2,127.8,126.41,126.18,127.78,126.7,127.73,126.6,127.41,127.72,126.63,126.71,128.44,128.39,128.32,130.73,133.16,132.23,132.48,133.26,133.23,134.34,132.26,129.77,129.75,130.69,131.68,132.14,132.26,133.93,133.05,132.99,131.49,131.54,134.37,135.63,136.33,136.68,136.64,135.85,136.7,136.69,138.63,138.05,137.48,138.22,137.24,137.78,139.63,139.58,142.4,140.94,141.49,142.13,144.49,146.43,147.69,146.5,147.79,148.51,149.6,148.48,150.1,152.78,155.12,155.54,155.2,156.4,157.75,159.6,159,158.07,157.95,157.71,158.75,157.66,157.33,157.3,155.53,155.46,155.65,155.89,156.05,156.13,155.14,156.23,155.64,156.58,156.11,154.65,155.08,155.92,158.2,159.01,160.73,161.66,161.4,162.48,165.56,166.34,164.35,163.7,163.78,166.87,164.54,165.84,166.62,165.54,163.49,164.4,165.86,166.41,167.84,167.1,167.74,165.26,166.27,167.87,168.75,167.9,168.26,169.75,169.1,169.93,169.32,172.34,173.22,168.91,168.88,167.08,167.11,168.36,166.73,164.48,163.33,164.81,165.79,164.41,166.28,168.77,171.47,172.77,171.37,170.91,170.77,169.17,168.4,166.12,166.25,166.97,166.36,166,165.02,166.34,167.38,167.71,166.95,163.85,163.25,163.65,163.6,163.23,165.87,166.64,165.79,165.28,164.55,163.49,164.73,162.78,165.43,166.58,165.41,164.98,164.82,163.34,163.55,159.99,161.73,158.72,158.43,158.16,159.71,161.02,159.42,160.59,162.4,162.45,163.53,161.9,162.12,161.97,163.62,162.45,163.8,163.72,161.77,165.06,166.79,166.55,166.55,167.46,169.15,168.84,166.77,168.58,168.62,168.57,168.23,166.81,164.73,165.35,165.71,166.57,167.02,168.76,169.22,167.52,169.37,166.66,168.91,168.16,166.34,166.11,165.54,168.3,169.33,168.88,170.96,168.55,169.89,169.83,172.41,175.11,175.37,174.33,175.83,174.73,174.15,176.33,175.08,176.28,177.32,174.66,172.8,172.67,174.02,173.45,177.46,173.14,173.99,174.6,175.76,172.61,172.29,172.02,172.14,172.92,174.54,171.18,171.33,171.35,172.1,172.88,172.83,172.22,172.63,173.31,170.85,171.62,171.26,171.24,169.54,172.43,171.71,171.86,171.06,170.41,171.36,170.31,171.34,169.3,168.77,167.73,166.99,167.13,163.4,162.07,163.52,162.01,160.94,159.92,160.27,161.69,160.9,162.03,160.23,160.9,160.85,160.19,160.75,160.56,160.79,161.97,162.24,161.03,159.61,159.45,158.89,158.92,158.49,160.8,161.64,161.31,160.24,159.26,160.57,161.07,161.56,159.84,158.94,158.68,159.84,160.85,159.45,158.89,158.12,158.09,157.35,156.85,157.61,157.62,156.28,159.55,158.47,159.69,159.42,157.19,155.94,156.03,154.61,152.5,151.69,153.23,152.41,154.44,155.44,155.66,155.07,154.29,155.04,154.8,157.76,157.87,158.59,157.17,156.89,154.73,154.35,153.59,154.19,153.79,153.68,154.21,153.87,153.55,155.22,153.65,150.93,150.6]},{"name":"Market B","prices":[100,100.03,100.41,99.77,99.15,98.75,98.47,98.62,98.52,98.62,99.11,99.9,100.37,99.69,99.74,99.31,99.65,99.7,99.54,100,99.36,99.68,99.93,100.23,101.25,101.16,101.61,101.18,100.76,100.26,100.73,100.85,100.66,100.73,101.06,100.77,100.2,99.4,99.17,99.51,99.32,99.23,99.22,99.63,100.07,100.44,100.08,99.75,99.94,100.32,99.79,99.35,98.88,99.34,99.15,99.59,99.81,100.45,100.35,99.23,99.33,98.88,98.11,98.6,98.31,98.9,99.13,98.16,98.24,98.2,98.62,99.04,98.43,97.9,98.6,98.46,98.5,99.17,98.86,98.4,98.87,99.08,98.95,98.54,97.91,97.55,97.2,96.91,98.2,99.17,99.5,99.49,99.42,98.98,98.39,98.56,98.5,98.4,97.92,97.69,98.5,98.78,99.4,99.96,100.79,101.17,100.43,99.9,99.99,100.12,99.54,99.53,98.58,99.61,100.63,100.61,101.44,101.1,101.01,101.31,102.24,102.28,102.51,103.3,104.17,105.27,105.22,105.36,105.04,104.7,105.18,105.41,105.15,105.38,105.36,105.56,105.49,106.02,106.01,105.16,105.01,104.31,104.39,104.98,104.53,104.4,104.8,105.36,105.86,106.8,107.04,106.45,106.61,107.35,107.03,107.17,106.36,105.95,107.18,107.2,108.12,108.28,107.73,107.68,107.37,106.93,106.6,106.79,106.55,106.41,106.72,107.17,107.11,106.81,107.88,107.27,108.17,108.35,108.55,108.49,108.41,108.48,108.79,108.63,109.76,109.41,109.79,109.24,109.24,109.35,110.33,110.88,110.65,109.69,110.19,110.36,110.72,111.71,112.6,112.34,111.99,112.97,112.94,112.65,112.21,112.09,112.07,111.77,112.44,111.02,110.14,110.38,109.28,109.58,108.76,109.18,110.52,109.82,108.59,108.67,108.48,109.06,109.48,109.59,109.95,109.5,108.63,109.17,109.27,108.5,109.09,108.7,109.22,109.23,108.58,108.11,108.78,110.19,109.06,109.61,109.21,108.82,107.97,108.82,109.08,108.57,108.61,108.55,107.57,107.23,107.07,107.15,107.42,107.51,107.64,107.56,107.37,107.6,107.42,106.82,107.08,106.21,105.22,104.66,104.66,104.79,104.57,103.65,104.38,104.56,104.37,104.41,104.47,104.7,105.23,105.16,105.06,106.02,107.16,107.4,107.21,106.19,105.61,105.51,105.48,104.77,104.58,104.46,104.59,104.64,103.67,102.58,102.06,102.53,102.2,101.88,102.63,103.25,103.08,103.25,104.02,103.91,104.29,103.92,104.46,105.34,105.14,103.88,104.3,104.69,105.07,104.39,104.15,104.15,104.16,103.84,103.49,103.12,103.68,104.32,104.68,105.12,105.47,105.41,105.3,105.73,105.8,104.75,104.76,105.07,104.97,105.74,106.67,106.57,106.52,106.91,107.34,107.74,106.8,107.7,107.95,107.47,108.33,108.11,108.16,108.17,108.23,108.65,108.56,109.1,109.25,108.86,110.04,109.46,110.25,110.06,109.35,107.93,107.88,108.27,108.42,108.05,108.63,107.98,107.77,108.17,108.73,109.7,109.71,109.36,109.47,109.23,109.71,109.71,110.16,110.29,109.88,110.14,110.5,110.23,110.65,110.6,112.15,111.66,111.69,112.04,113.01,112.62,113.51,113.75,113.46,113.46,113.63,112.46,112.54,112.01,112.16,111.66,112.73,112.24,112.56,112.52,112.61,112.21,112.17,112.44,111.76,112.5,111.86,112,112.88,113.36,114.43,115.09,114.95,114.27,114.27,113.7,114.07,113.84,113.22,112.64,112.05,111.66,111.42,111.27,111.28,111.99,112.08,112.61,113.06,112.51,111.6,110.85,110.35,110.57,111.69,112.27,112.38,112.62,113.21,112.32,112.18,111.08,111.43,111.93,112.88,113.45,113.54,113.47,114.05,114.67,115.48,115.1,114.54,113.64,114.3,113.77,112.67,112.37,112.84,112.73,112.27,112.53,113.09,113.2,113.47,114.37,113.74,113.9,113.61,112.08,113.18,112.93,113.1,113.53,113.83,113.84,113.52,113.76,113.75,114.18,114.43,114.14,113.97,114.56,115.08,114.72,114.32,114.05,114,113.37,113.06,113.12,113.03,112.91,112.87,113.62,112.78,113.01,113.02,112.57,112.58,112.27]},{"name":"Market 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\
  | jq '{summary, flags, flips, not_modeled, inputs_hash}'
```

### MCP

The tool is `trend_vol_target` on the server at https://hedgefund.md/mcp.

```bash
curl -s https://hedgefund.md/mcp \
  -H 'content-type: application/json' -H 'accept: application/json' \
  -d '{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"tools/call","params":{"name":"trend_vol_target","arguments":{"markets":[{"name":"Market A","prices":[100,100.75,101.5,100.58,100.6,100.67,100.47,101.2,101.41,101.65,101.94,102.84,105.17,105.55,105.61,104.46,103.6,101.81,101.97,102.47,101.82,102.83,102.63,103.33,103.71,103.92,105.19,105.67,106.18,104.98,104.41,104.57,104.43,103.44,103.42,104.85,105.56,103.6,102.56,103.77,103.04,102.06,101.88,102.44,103.09,104.63,105.06,104.62,107.61,107.76,107.08,107.32,107.97,108.93,109.2,109.84,111.49,112.69,113.29,113.88,113.95,111.6,110.9,111.46,113.46,113.83,111.87,112.15,113.03,113.47,114.16,114.68,114.23,114.84,116.6,116.44,116.68,117.1,117.12,116.21,115.73,115.65,115.04,115.33,114.9,116.37,115.62,116.93,117.77,118.28,119.32,116.7,114.84,113.48,112.14,114.2,113.23,111.96,112.44,113.18,113.66,115.72,116.51,117.58,118.9,118.11,119.46,117.12,116.18,117.11,115.91,115.88,115.89,116.5,118.34,119.64,119.61,119.05,118.45,119.04,118.26,118.66,119.54,122.23,123.01,124.49,124.53,123.77,122.91,123.75,125.02,126.37,127.02,125.88,126.2,127.8,126.41,126.18,127.78,126.7,127.73,126.6,127.41,127.72,126.63,126.71,128.44,128.39,128.32,130.73,133.16,132.23,132.48,133.26,133.23,134.34,132.26,129.77,129.75,130.69,131.68,132.14,132.26,133.93,133.05,132.99,131.49,131.54,134.37,135.63,136.33,136.68,136.64,135.85,136.7,136.69,138.63,138.05,137.48,138.22,137.24,137.78,139.63,139.58,142.4,140.94,141.49,142.13,144.49,146.43,147.69,146.5,147.79,148.51,149.6,148.48,150.1,152.78,155.12,155.54,155.2,156.4,157.75,159.6,159,158.07,157.95,157.71,158.75,157.66,157.33,157.3,155.53,155.46,155.65,155.89,156.05,156.13,155.14,156.23,155.64,156.58,156.11,154.65,155.08,155.92,158.2,159.01,160.73,161.66,161.4,162.48,165.56,166.34,164.35,163.7,163.78,166.87,164.54,165.84,166.62,165.54,163.49,164.4,165.86,166.41,167.84,167.1,167.74,165.26,166.27,167.87,168.75,167.9,168.26,169.75,169.1,169.93,169.32,172.34,173.22,168.91,168.88,167.08,167.11,168.36,166.73,164.48,163.33,164.81,165.79,164.41,166.28,168.77,171.47,172.77,171.37,170.91,170.77,169.17,168.4,166.12,166.25,166.97,166.36,166,165.02,166.34,167.38,167.71,166.95,163.85,163.25,163.65,163.6,163.23,165.87,166.64,165.79,165.28,164.55,163.49,164.73,162.78,165.43,166.58,165.41,164.98,164.82,163.34,163.55,159.99,161.73,158.72,158.43,158.16,159.71,161.02,159.42,160.59,162.4,162.45,163.53,161.9,162.12,161.97,163.62,162.45,163.8,163.72,161.77,165.06,166.79,166.55,166.55,167.46,169.15,168.84,166.77,168.58,168.62,168.57,168.23,166.81,164.73,165.35,165.71,166.57,167.02,168.76,169.22,167.52,169.37,166.66,168.91,168.16,166.34,166.11,165.54,168.3,169.33,168.88,170.96,168.55,169.89,169.83,172.41,175.11,175.37,174.33,175.83,174.73,174.15,176.33,175.08,176.28,177.32,174.66,172.8,172.67,174.02,173.45,177.46,173.14,173.99,174.6,175.76,172.61,172.29,172.02,172.14,172.92,174.54,171.18,171.33,171.35,172.1,172.88,172.83,172.22,172.63,173.31,170.85,171.62,171.26,171.24,169.54,172.43,171.71,171.86,171.06,170.41,171.36,170.31,171.34,169.3,168.77,167.73,166.99,167.13,163.4,162.07,163.52,162.01,160.94,159.92,160.27,161.69,160.9,162.03,160.23,160.9,160.85,160.19,160.75,160.56,160.79,161.97,162.24,161.03,159.61,159.45,158.89,158.92,158.49,160.8,161.64,161.31,160.24,159.26,160.57,161.07,161.56,159.84,158.94,158.68,159.84,160.85,159.45,158.89,158.12,158.09,157.35,156.85,157.61,157.62,156.28,159.55,158.47,159.69,159.42,157.19,155.94,156.03,154.61,152.5,151.69,153.23,152.41,154.44,155.44,155.66,155.07,154.29,155.04,154.8,157.76,157.87,158.59,157.17,156.89,154.73,154.35,153.59,154.19,153.79,153.68,154.21,153.87,153.55,155.22,153.65,150.93,150.6]},{"name":"Market B","prices":[100,100.03,100.41,99.77,99.15,98.75,98.47,98.62,98.52,98.62,99.11,99.9,100.37,99.69,99.74,99.31,99.65,99.7,99.54,100,99.36,99.68,99.93,100.23,101.25,101.16,101.61,101.18,100.76,100.26,100.73,100.85,100.66,100.73,101.06,100.77,100.2,99.4,99.17,99.51,99.32,99.23,99.22,99.63,100.07,100.44,100.08,99.75,99.94,100.32,99.79,99.35,98.88,99.34,99.15,99.59,99.81,100.45,100.35,99.23,99.33,98.88,98.11,98.6,98.31,98.9,99.13,98.16,98.24,98.2,98.62,99.04,98.43,97.9,98.6,98.46,98.5,99.17,98.86,98.4,98.87,99.08,98.95,98.54,97.91,97.55,97.2,96.91,98.2,99.17,99.5,99.49,99.42,98.98,98.39,98.56,98.5,98.4,97.92,97.69,98.5,98.78,99.4,99.96,100.79,101.17,100.43,99.9,99.99,100.12,99.54,99.53,98.58,99.61,100.63,100.61,101.44,101.1,101.01,101.31,102.24,102.28,102.51,103.3,104.17,105.27,105.22,105.36,105.04,104.7,105.18,105.41,105.15,105.38,105.36,105.56,105.49,106.02,106.01,105.16,105.01,104.31,104.39,104.98,104.53,104.4,104.8,105.36,105.86,106.8,107.04,106.45,106.61,107.35,107.03,107.17,106.36,105.95,107.18,107.2,108.12,108.28,107.73,107.68,107.37,106.93,106.6,106.79,106.55,106.41,106.72,107.17,107.11,106.81,107.88,107.27,108.17,108.35,108.55,108.49,108.41,108.48,108.79,108.63,109.76,109.41,109.79,109.24,109.24,109.35,110.33,110.88,110.65,109.69,110.19,110.36,110.72,111.71,112.6,112.34,111.99,112.97,112.94,112.65,112.21,112.09,112.07,111.77,112.44,111.02,110.14,110.38,109.28,109.58,108.76,109.18,110.52,109.82,108.59,108.67,108.48,109.06,109.48,109.59,109.95,109.5,108.63,109.17,109.27,108.5,109.09,108.7,109.22,109.23,108.58,108.11,108.78,110.19,109.06,109.61,109.21,108.82,107.97,108.82,109.08,108.57,108.61,108.55,107.57,107.23,107.07,107.15,107.42,107.51,107.64,107.56,107.37,107.6,107.42,106.82,107.08,106.21,105.22,104.66,104.66,104.79,104.57,103.65,104.38,104.56,104.37,104.41,104.47,104.7,105.23,105.16,105.06,106.02,107.16,107.4,107.21,106.19,105.61,105.51,105.48,104.77,104.58,104.46,104.59,104.64,103.67,102.58,102.06,102.53,102.2,101.88,102.63,103.25,103.08,103.25,104.02,103.91,104.29,103.92,104.46,105.34,105.14,103.88,104.3,104.69,105.07,104.39,104.15,104.15,104.16,103.84,103.49,103.12,103.68,104.32,104.68,105.12,105.47,105.41,105.3,105.73,105.8,104.75,104.76,105.07,104.97,105.74,106.67,106.57,106.52,106.91,107.34,107.74,106.8,107.7,107.95,107.47,108.33,108.11,108.16,108.17,108.23,108.65,108.56,109.1,109.25,108.86,110.04,109.46,110.25,110.06,109.35,107.93,107.88,108.27,108.42,108.05,108.63,107.98,107.77,108.17,108.73,109.7,109.71,109.36,109.47,109.23,109.71,109.71,110.16,110.29,109.88,110.14,110.5,110.23,110.65,110.6,112.15,111.66,111.69,112.04,113.01,112.62,113.51,113.75,113.46,113.46,113.63,112.46,112.54,112.01,112.16,111.66,112.73,112.24,112.56,112.52,112.61,112.21,112.17,112.44,111.76,112.5,111.86,112,112.88,113.36,114.43,115.09,114.95,114.27,114.27,113.7,114.07,113.84,113.22,112.64,112.05,111.66,111.42,111.27,111.28,111.99,112.08,112.61,113.06,112.51,111.6,110.85,110.35,110.57,111.69,112.27,112.38,112.62,113.21,112.32,112.18,111.08,111.43,111.93,112.88,113.45,113.54,113.47,114.05,114.67,115.48,115.1,114.54,113.64,114.3,113.77,112.67,112.37,112.84,112.73,112.27,112.53,113.09,113.2,113.47,114.37,113.74,113.9,113.61,112.08,113.18,112.93,113.1,113.53,113.83,113.84,113.52,113.76,113.75,114.18,114.43,114.14,113.97,114.56,115.08,114.72,114.32,114.05,114,113.37,113.06,113.12,113.03,112.91,112.87,113.62,112.78,113.01,113.02,112.57,112.58,112.27]},{"name":"Market C","prices":[80,79.43,80.14,80.44,78.01,77.12,78.2,78.74,79.15,81.07,82.6,84.21,84.53,82.38,83.75,82.32,81.45,78.5,78.03,81.04,79.98,80.23,80.21,80.4,82.49,83.22,83.15,83.06,81.59,79.86,79.48,79.37,78.74,79.19,80.83,81.47,81.77,80.17,80.36,81.36,81.28,82.72,82.86,82.74,84,84.54,86.31,86.97,90.45,92.64,91.28,90.29,90.28,91.73,90.71,91.48,92.76,93.23,91.63,89.64,89.48,89.69,89.27,89.51,90.32,93.17,92.46,91.73,92.22,91.03,91.58,92.16,91.39,92.18,92.67,93.09,93.52,93.08,92.84,92.13,92.9,92.72,92.82,91.14,91.28,92.43,90.49,91.85,94.42,95.49,96.43,95.25,94.83,94.3,92.56,93.05,93.71,91.74,90.83,91.75,90.59,89.12,88.96,89.31,92.2,91.29,90.91,91.1,90.14,90.14,89.58,88.86,89.04,90.97,93.04,93.15,92.81,93.28,92.66,91.3,91.58,92.55,93.25,93.8,95.8,96.73,96.27,96.66,94.86,93.53,95.12,96.29,96.98,95.91,98.02,97.98,96.79,97.97,98.65,98.55,99.05,97.45,98.21,98.2,97.17,98.29,95.87,96.72,97.31,100.23,101.09,101.43,102.25,104.66,103.59,104.63,103.59,102.6,103.58,104.51,105.26,102.86,101.97,102.59,103.19,102.21,99.11,99.16,98.75,100.02,99.07,98.75,99.63,98,100.16,101.43,103.07,102.45,102.85,103.06,99.76,101.1,102.32,103.79,106.87,105.62,106.44,105.12,105.96,108.62,110.62,111.08,111.35,111.22,111.88,110.23,112.79,112.73,111,111.57,111.37,113.23,115.61,118.73,118.58,117.51,117.02,112.83,113.36,111.29,109.51,110.19,107.94,108.25,107.37,109.28,110.33,108.41,109.72,111.55,111.06,112.33,112.72,110.54,111.71,111.35,109.74,112.96,113.16,113.69,115.12,114.83,116.79,117.48,116.45,118.39,116.68,119.67,119.07,120.19,119.04,118.93,120.48,122.43,122.87,122.64,123.31,124.51,122.88,120.09,121.84,122.19,121.99,122.54,125.99,126.98,126.91,128.82,131.76,132.03,132.03,129.17,127.74,128.13,130.37,129.29,126.89,125.16,125.9,126.21,126.45,122.3,122.85,122.67,125.89,130.03,129.19,129.83,133.04,133.54,132.19,130.29,130.49,132.02,132.09,132.22,128.86,129.9,132.02,132.65,131.08,128.38,126.66,130.1,129.25,130.21,132.53,133.7,134.28,132.91,134.3,131.73,132.53,130.55,132.37,134.73,133.82,131.74,132.79,134.83,134.69,131.12,131.23,129.4,131.45,130.6,129.01,129.73,127.83,129.66,130.34,131.78,134.2,133.24,131.7,129.6,130.15,129.1,130.63,133.17,133.78,134.72,137.18,135.75,136.62,138.03,140.02,141.77,140.21,141.73,142.95,140.13,140.87,140.88,140.01,140.4,140.45,141.93,141.65,143.87,143.92,141.26,142.54,139.32,140.52,140.28,138.55,136.4,137.02,138.48,137.01,136.03,133.98,130.53,129.15,131.38,131.63,134.14,133.76,133.07,132.3,130.91,132.57,134.3,134.81,137.35,139.06,138.74,136.75,139.45,139.79,139.62,143.87,140.35,138.86,137.63,135.86,135.05,134.38,133.93,134.25,135.32,134.64,131.28,131.41,131.53,132.72,132.35,132.56,132.83,133.1,134.57,131.72,129.65,130.59,130.22,128.25,128.17,128.51,127.49,129.14,127.23,125.89,127.41,126.14,124.5,124.3,123.75,122.74,123.45,122.05,122.22,120.58,119.86,121.9,120.83,120.99,121.88,122.9,123.49,123.69,123.3,122.26,121.49,120.66,119.5,118.77,118.88,118.41,118.91,120.01,116.57,116.16,115.1,112.26,114.07,115.62,116.31,116.03,115.38,116.39,117.82,121.71,121.26,119.95,118.08,119.46,120.85,118.15,117.22,120.59,120.71,120.45,120.1,120.34,119.21,122.94,126.18,124.54,123.8,123.31,120.22,121.59,123.56,123.81,124.45,126.44,126.72,123.94,125.3,123.79,123.75,122.64,123.26,123.86,125.78,130.23,130.65,130.76,127.99,125.72,122.8,121.34,119.16,119.19,120.02,120.11,119.35,119.14,118.67,119.82,117.23,118.08,116.33]},{"name":"Market 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\
  | jq '.result.structuredContent | {summary, flags, flips, not_modeled, inputs_hash}'
```

### The library

The same code on your own machine, with no dependencies, and nothing is sent anywhere.

```bash
curl -fsSL https://hedgefund.md/hedgefund.mjs -o hedgefund.mjs   # read it before you run it
node hedgefund.mjs template trend_vol_target > mine.json           # replace every number in it
node hedgefund.mjs run trend_vol_target mine.json | jq '{summary, flags, flips, not_modeled, inputs_hash}'
```

In a script:

```js
import { run, template } from "./hedgefund.mjs";

const inputs = template("trend_vol_target"); // replace every number in it
const { summary, flags, flips, not_modeled } = run("trend_vol_target", inputs);
```