The gap between a token and what's under it.
Models an AI agent can run on your own numbers, each one also a prompt to paste: NAV between strikes, redemption queues, gates, pool depth, collateral and reserves.
Not a fund, an offer or anyone's adviser. No people at a desk: software that does arithmetic on your numbers. Results are hypothetical.
Not here: anything past these models. There is no market data or prices, no picks or signals of our own, no trading or custody, no fund or token offering and no investment advice, and none of those is planned. What should it do next? Tell us.
Tokenized assets
A token can trade all weekend. What's under it often can't.
A 24/7 price isn't 24/7 liquidity. These models measure the gap: NAV gone stale between strikes, forced sales behind a next-day redemption, a gate that shrinks with the tokens left, a pool too thin for the position, and a loan that looks far from its line on the oracle's clock and close on the redemption clock.
Premium to NAV with the mint and redeem band
token_nav_gap, on its template- Premium %
- Band top %
- Band bottom %
- Outside the band
The data
Mean premium
-0.3308%
Last point -0.304%.
Worst gap
-2.3928%
Worst discount -2.393%, worst premium 0.05%.
Days outside the band
6.667%
4 of 60 days. With one stdev of NAV drift allowed, 0 days.
Half-life of the gap
3.295 days
AR(1) slope 0.8103. One day per observation.
NAV drift between strikes, one stdev
1.3848%
Vol 10% over 7 days. The fee band runs -1.137% to +0.637%.
Hypothetical, computed from the numbers sent and any stated default, with hindsight. Nobody traded it, and costs and liquidity are only as assumed. Not a forecast, a recommendation, an offer, or a record of real trading. Don't use it to market an investment. Hypothetical, and on made-up numbers until you replace them. Nobody traded this, and nothing here is on offer.
The same token on three clocks
From the same template. The days are its made-up terms, not anyone's.
Token price every day
NAV strike every 7 days
A redemption asked on day 1, cash on day 11
position_tokens 740.93 On these numbers, below this size the pool pays more per token. Above it redemption does, with its fee and settlement carry counted. Neither route is checked as open to this holder.
Value per token by size of exit
- Pool average
- Pool marginal
- Redemption
The data
Five models, and what each one catches
- T-bill tokenWhen redemptions outrun a T-bill ladder, when do forced sales start, and what do the holders who stay lose?daily_redemption_pct 0.0755
Forced sales begin above this daily redemption rate. Below it, cash and maturities pay every request.Run it - Property tokenWhat would this property token pay on these numbers, which cap rate move hits its covenant, and how does a secondary discount compare with waiting in the redemption queue?cap_rate_shock_bps 16.04
With vacancy at the sent shock, Office tower A reaches the 65% covenant at this cap rate move, the first property to do so.Run it - Commodity tokenHow does a commodity token compare with futures plus cash over a hold, what band do its fees set, and can this position redeem at all?market_premium_pct 0.25
Above this premium a mint costs less than a market purchase. Below it the market costs less.Run it - Token and NAV gapHow wide is the gap between a token's price and its NAV, how much of it can stale NAV explain, and at what size does redemption pay more than the pool?position_tokens 740.93
On these numbers, below this size the pool pays more per token. Above it redemption does, with its fee and settlement carry counted. Neither route is checked as open to this holder.Run it - Token as collateralHow far is a loan against a token from liquidation on the oracle's clock and on the redemption clock, and what does a liquidation through the pool leave behind?asset_vol_pct 8.9637
At this vol the loan sits exactly 3 stdevs from the line over the redemption time. Above it the line is closer than that.Run it
What the skill has an agent ask of any token, with the source of each answer
- 1What's under it?
- 2Who can redeem?
- 3At what notice?
- 4How often does NAV strike?
- 5What is the gate?
- 6Who may hold it?
- 7What happens in a queue?
- 8How deep is the pool against the position?
- 9What does the oracle do on a weekend?
The prompts
Paste one prompt, or give your agent the whole pack.
Each prompt carries its method, its conventions, made-up inputs and the values to reproduce before real numbers go in. These copies sit at addresses that stay fixed for this version and are cached for a year, with a sha256 for each in the index. A change to a prompt's text gets a new version folder.
- T-bill tokenWhen redemptions outrun a T-bill ladder, when do forced sales start, and what do the holders who stay lose?promptrun it
- Property tokenWhat would this property token pay on these numbers, which cap rate move hits its covenant, and how does a secondary discount compare with waiting in the redemption queue?promptrun it
- Commodity tokenHow does a commodity token compare with futures plus cash over a hold, what band do its fees set, and can this position redeem at all?promptrun it
- Token and NAV gapHow wide is the gap between a token's price and its NAV, how much of it can stale NAV explain, and at what size does redemption pay more than the pool?promptrun it
- Token as collateralHow far is a loan against a token from liquidation on the oracle's clock and on the redemption clock, and what does a liquidation through the pool leave behind?promptrun it
- Private credit tapeHow do this loan tape's losses and interest fall through its tranches, and how much sits under the senior at a 1% chance of impairment?promptrun it
- Redemption gatesIf holders ask for this much back, what gets paid on each date, what must be sold, and what is left for the holders who stay?promptrun it
- Reserve coverageDo these reserves cover the tokens at par, and on which day does cash run short at this redemption rate?promptrun it