The models
24 models in seven groups. Each one runs on made-up numbers as it stands, then on yours.
Every model gives the same result: a summary, readings, flips, flags, assumptions and a not_modeled list. A flip is the input value where the outcome changes, and it's usually the number worth going to measure. Nothing here fetches a price.
flags
What went past a line, and what to read before you trust the rest.
flips
The value of one input where the outcome changes, with the others held.
not_modeled
What the formula leaves out, by name.
assumptions
What it took as given to get here.
readings
The numbers, with their units.
summary
One plain sentence that starts "On these numbers".
Tokenized assets
T-bills, private credit, property, commodities and collateral on a chain.
- T-bill token
tokenized_bills
When redemptions outrun a T-bill ladder, when do forced sales start, and what do the holders who stay lose?
2
model.md
First forced sale - Property token
tokenized_property
What would this property token pay on these numbers, which cap rate move hits its covenant, and how does a secondary discount compare with waiting in the redemption queue?
20.24
model.md
NAV per token at the sent shock - Commodity token
commodity_token
How does a commodity token compare with futures plus cash over a hold, what band do its fees set, and can this position redeem at all?
no floor
model.md
Band width at this size - Token and NAV gap
token_nav_gap
How wide is the gap between a token's price and its NAV, how much of it can stale NAV explain, and at what size does redemption pay more than the pool?
-2.3928%
model.md
Worst gap - Token as collateral
rwa_collateral
How far is a loan against a token from liquidation on the oracle's clock and on the redemption clock, and what does a liquidation through the pool leave behind?
23.77%
model.md
Slippage selling at the line
Equities
Long-short books, factors, pairs and deal spreads.
- Long-short book
long_short_book
How much of this book's risk is factor bets, which names carry it, and what would it take to flatten the first factor?
31.73%
model.md
Factor share of variance - Factor regression
factor_regress
After the factors, how much of this return stream is left, and can that intercept be told apart from zero?
1.5455
model.md
Intercept t-stat - Pairs spread
pairs_spread
Does this spread pull back to its mean, and what is left of a hypothetical walk through the later window after costs?
1.0325
model.md
Hedge ratio h - Merger spread
merger_spread
What is this deal spread worth after carry, and what completion odds does the price imply?
50
model.md
Offer value
Macro
Trend, risk parity and rates.
- Trend with a vol target
trend_vol_target
What does a hypothetical trend walk with a vol target look like on these prices, with no peek ahead, after costs?
12.42%
model.md
Hypothetical annual vol - Risk parity
risk_parity
What weights give each asset the same share of risk, how much leverage reaches the vol target, and what does a jump in correlation do to it?
12.53%
model.md
Vol with correlations up 0.3 - Rates ladder
rates_ladder
What would this bond ladder earn over the horizon on these yields, what does a parallel shift do to it, and what shift takes the return to zero?
4,983,424
model.md
Dirty value
Options
Greeks, shock grids and variance carry.
- Options book
options_book
What are this option book's Greeks, where does it break even, and which shock hurts it most?
43.18%
model.md
Worst node, share of capital - Variance carry
variance_carry
What does this variance position pay at this realized vol, and how much faster does a short lose than it earns?
-69,000
model.md
P and L at settlement
Credit
Spread carry and private credit tranches.
- Credit carry
credit_carry
What would this list of credits earn on these spreads, what does one default cost, and how much widening takes the year's carry back?
24%
model.md
Largest jump, share of NAV - Private credit tape
private_credit_tape
How do this loan tape's losses and interest fall through its tranches, and how much sits under the senior at a 1% chance of impairment?
25.8% of pool
model.md
Size under the senior for a 1% chance
Digital assets
Cash-and-carry basis and reserve coverage.
- Basis carry
basis_carry
What does this long spot, short derivative position net after costs, and how far can the price rise before the short is liquidated?
18.87%
model.md
Rise to liquidation - Reserve coverage
reserve_coverage
Do these reserves cover the tokens at par, and on which day does cash run short at this redemption rate?
24 day
model.md
First shortfall day
Fund terms and risk
Fees, gates, book risk, stress, sizing and backtest honesty.
- Fee waterfall
fee_waterfall
What do the management and performance fees take from this return series, and at what return does a performance fee start?
461,690
model.md
Performance fee accrued, not paid - Redemption gates
redemption_gates
If holders ask for this much back, what gets paid on each date, what must be sold, and what is left for the holders who stay?
39,948,897
model.md
Paid in all - Book risk
book_risk
What does this return series say about annual vol, tail loss and drawdowns, and how much data sits behind each tail figure?
1.1%
model.md
Historical VaR, one period - Stress the book
stress_book
What does each shock do to this book of sleeves, which shock is worst, and what drives it?
-6.16% of NAV
model.md
Worst scenario, P and L - Position size limits
size_position
What does each constraint allow for this position, and which one is smallest?
22,222,222
model.md
Kelly fraction allows - Deflated Sharpe
deflated_sharpe
How much of this backtest's Sharpe survives the number of trials it was picked from?
87.57%
model.md
Deflated Sharpe
Hypothetical, and on made-up numbers until you replace them. Nobody traded this, and nothing here is on offer.