HEDGEFUND.md

The models

24 models in seven groups. Each one runs on made-up numbers as it stands, then on yours.

Every model gives the same result: a summary, readings, flips, flags, assumptions and a not_modeled list. A flip is the input value where the outcome changes, and it's usually the number worth going to measure. Nothing here fetches a price.

flags

What went past a line, and what to read before you trust the rest.

flips

The value of one input where the outcome changes, with the others held.

not_modeled

What the formula leaves out, by name.

assumptions

What it took as given to get here.

readings

The numbers, with their units.

summary

One plain sentence that starts "On these numbers".

Tokenized assets

T-bills, private credit, property, commodities and collateral on a chain.

  • T-bill token

    tokenized_bills

    When redemptions outrun a T-bill ladder, when do forced sales start, and what do the holders who stay lose?

    2
    First forced sale

    model.md
  • Property token

    tokenized_property

    What would this property token pay on these numbers, which cap rate move hits its covenant, and how does a secondary discount compare with waiting in the redemption queue?

    20.24
    NAV per token at the sent shock

    model.md
  • Commodity token

    commodity_token

    How does a commodity token compare with futures plus cash over a hold, what band do its fees set, and can this position redeem at all?

    no floor
    Band width at this size

    model.md
  • Token and NAV gap

    token_nav_gap

    How wide is the gap between a token's price and its NAV, how much of it can stale NAV explain, and at what size does redemption pay more than the pool?

    -2.3928%
    Worst gap

    model.md
  • Token as collateral

    rwa_collateral

    How far is a loan against a token from liquidation on the oracle's clock and on the redemption clock, and what does a liquidation through the pool leave behind?

    23.77%
    Slippage selling at the line

    model.md

Equities

Long-short books, factors, pairs and deal spreads.

  • Long-short book

    long_short_book

    How much of this book's risk is factor bets, which names carry it, and what would it take to flatten the first factor?

    31.73%
    Factor share of variance

    model.md
  • Factor regression

    factor_regress

    After the factors, how much of this return stream is left, and can that intercept be told apart from zero?

    1.5455
    Intercept t-stat

    model.md
  • Pairs spread

    pairs_spread

    Does this spread pull back to its mean, and what is left of a hypothetical walk through the later window after costs?

    1.0325
    Hedge ratio h

    model.md
  • Merger spread

    merger_spread

    What is this deal spread worth after carry, and what completion odds does the price imply?

    50
    Offer value

    model.md

Macro

Trend, risk parity and rates.

  • Trend with a vol target

    trend_vol_target

    What does a hypothetical trend walk with a vol target look like on these prices, with no peek ahead, after costs?

    12.42%
    Hypothetical annual vol

    model.md
  • Risk parity

    risk_parity

    What weights give each asset the same share of risk, how much leverage reaches the vol target, and what does a jump in correlation do to it?

    12.53%
    Vol with correlations up 0.3

    model.md
  • Rates ladder

    rates_ladder

    What would this bond ladder earn over the horizon on these yields, what does a parallel shift do to it, and what shift takes the return to zero?

    4,983,424
    Dirty value

    model.md

Options

Greeks, shock grids and variance carry.

  • Options book

    options_book

    What are this option book's Greeks, where does it break even, and which shock hurts it most?

    43.18%
    Worst node, share of capital

    model.md
  • Variance carry

    variance_carry

    What does this variance position pay at this realized vol, and how much faster does a short lose than it earns?

    -69,000
    P and L at settlement

    model.md

Credit

Spread carry and private credit tranches.

  • Credit carry

    credit_carry

    What would this list of credits earn on these spreads, what does one default cost, and how much widening takes the year's carry back?

    24%
    Largest jump, share of NAV

    model.md
  • Private credit tape

    private_credit_tape

    How do this loan tape's losses and interest fall through its tranches, and how much sits under the senior at a 1% chance of impairment?

    25.8% of pool
    Size under the senior for a 1% chance

    model.md

Digital assets

Cash-and-carry basis and reserve coverage.

  • Basis carry

    basis_carry

    What does this long spot, short derivative position net after costs, and how far can the price rise before the short is liquidated?

    18.87%
    Rise to liquidation

    model.md
  • Reserve coverage

    reserve_coverage

    Do these reserves cover the tokens at par, and on which day does cash run short at this redemption rate?

    24 day
    First shortfall day

    model.md

Fund terms and risk

Fees, gates, book risk, stress, sizing and backtest honesty.

  • Fee waterfall

    fee_waterfall

    What do the management and performance fees take from this return series, and at what return does a performance fee start?

    461,690
    Performance fee accrued, not paid

    model.md
  • Redemption gates

    redemption_gates

    If holders ask for this much back, what gets paid on each date, what must be sold, and what is left for the holders who stay?

    39,948,897
    Paid in all

    model.md
  • Book risk

    book_risk

    What does this return series say about annual vol, tail loss and drawdowns, and how much data sits behind each tail figure?

    1.1%
    Historical VaR, one period

    model.md
  • Stress the book

    stress_book

    What does each shock do to this book of sleeves, which shock is worst, and what drives it?

    -6.16% of NAV
    Worst scenario, P and L

    model.md
  • What does each constraint allow for this position, and which one is smallest?

    22,222,222
    Kelly fraction allows

    model.md
  • Deflated Sharpe

    deflated_sharpe

    How much of this backtest's Sharpe survives the number of trials it was picked from?

    87.57%
    Deflated Sharpe

    model.md

Hypothetical, and on made-up numbers until you replace them. Nobody traded this, and nothing here is on offer.

1.0Use at your own risk: hedgefund.md is not a fund, not an offer of any security, token or fund interest, and not advice. Results are hypothetical, may be wrong, and are not a record of real trading. Don't use them to market an investment. See the terms.